The PKK cease-fire and Syria’s Kurds

April 5, 2013 By

Posted By Gonul Tol Friday, March 22, 2013 – 12:22 PM
After nearly three decades of bloody struggle with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), Turkey might finally be entering a post-conflict era. On Wednesday, the PKK’s jailed leader Abdullah Ocalan, who has been serving a life sentence on Imrali Island since 1999, called for an immediate cease-fire and for thousands of his fighters to withdraw from Turkish territory. The call followed a round of talks that began in October 2012 between Turkey’s National Intelligence Organization (MIT) and Ocalan to convince the PKK fighters to lay down their arms and withdraw from Turkish soil. On Ocalan’s counsel and in a gesture of good will, the PKK released eight Turkish soldiers and civil servants last week that had been abducted almost two years ago.
Ocalan’s call could mark the first step in ending one of the world’s longest running insurgencies. If it were to succeed, it would also favorably impact Turkey’s democratization process, as well as possibly change the course of the Syrian uprising.
The Syrian conflict has reshuffled the strategic cards of all regional and international actors but has posed a particular challenge for Turkey due to the unique place Syria occupies in Turkey’s regional and domestic calculations. Prior to the start of protests in 2011, Syria had been a key component of the Turkish government’s “zero problems with neighbors” policy. Following a near war between the two countries in 1998, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu made Syria the test case for his vision to engage all regional actors, including former adversaries, through trade, investment, and political and cultural exchanges. Domestically, engagement with the Syrian regime ensured its cooperation with Turkey’s nearly three-decade fight against the PKK.
Confronting a high-stakes crisis on its southern border, Turkey has pursued a cautious approach toward Syria’s uprising. Ankara initially asked President Bashar al-Assad to carry out reforms. However, frustrated with the growing bloodshed, it finally joined the anti-Assad camp in the fall of 2011. Beyond its efforts to shelter refugees and increase international diplomatic pressure on the Syrian regime, Turkey took a proactive role in hosting and providing an organizational hub for the Syrian opposition. In retaliation, Assad granted several concessions to the Kurds and to the PKK in particular. He allowed Saleh Muslim, the head of the PKK’s Syrian offshoot Democratic Union Party (PYD), who lived for years in Iraq’s Qandil Mountains, to return to Syria and permitted the PYD to operate freely in the northern part of the country. Competing for influence with the PYD in the Kurdish areas of Syria is the Kurdish National Council (KNC), an umbrella organization of about 16 Kurdish parties close to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Founded under the patronage of KRG President Massoud Barzani, the KNC is seen as an ally of the KRG and lacks legitimacy among the Kurdish population. The PYD, on the other hand, is organizationally strong and active on the ground. It provides social services as well as security in Syria’s Kurdish areas in the northeast. Yet, skeptical about Turkey’s role in the Arab dominated Syrian opposition as well as fearful of an Islamist take-over in post-Assad Syria, the PYD has largely remained on the sidelines of the conflict.
Kurds could be the decisive minority in the Syrian uprising, yet they are either reluctant to fight against the regime with full force or stifled by internal divisions. In an effort to unite Syrian Kurds as well as boost his image as the leader of Kurds, Barzani tried to broker a power-sharing agreement between the PYD and the KNC in June 2012. With the Erbil Agreement, both parties pledged to become a unified Kurdish front — a factor that might boost the overthrow of the Assad regime. But the prospect of a long-lasting unity between the PYD and KNC has been looking slim. The PYD does not trust the KNC due to Barzani’s close ties to Turkey and the KNC is a loose organization struggling with internal divisions without the muscle to exert influence in the armed conflict.
But that could all change if Ocalan’s call for a cease-fire and withdrawal leads to disarmament of the PKK and a democratic resolution of Turkey’s Kurdish problem. In a recent phone interview PYD leader Saleh Muslim said that the eventual success of Ankara’s initiative could dramatically change the PYD’s relations with the KNC and Syria’s Arab opposition. The PYD’s distrust could give way to a working relationship with the non-Kurdish Syrian opposition if the opposition, freed from pressure by Turkey, addresses Kurdish demands. It could also build trust between the KNC and the PYD and lead to a united Kurdish front in Syria that has international legitimacy and strong standing with a fighting force on the ground.
As the Syrian crisis rages on with no resolution in sight, a united Syrian opposition that includes Kurds, fighting with Arabs on the same front could finally tip the balance against Assad. Turkey can be the glue that keeps Arabs and Kurds unified if it can finally find a long-lasting solution to its decades-old Kurdish problem. Only then can Turkey reclaim its hard-fought image as a regional superpower on the Arab street and pursue a confident Syria policy without subcontracting it to Barzani. So far, Turkey has refused to meet with the PYD due to its links to the PKK. Now that Turkey can talk to Ocalan openly, maybe Foreign Minister Davutoglu could talk to the PYD leader Saleh Muslim. That would tip the balance in Syria.
Gonul Tol is the founding director of the Center for Turkish Studies at the Middle East Institute.

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Kuwaiti Ambassador: We seek to remove Iraq from Chapter VII

April 3, 2013 By
Baghdad: Euphrates News: Kuwaiti Ambassador to Iraq Ali believer that his country was seeking to remove Iraq from Chapter VII of the UN Security Council.
The insurer told {Euphrates News} Wednesday that “the results of the meeting leaders of Kuwait with Iraq at the highest levels and the meeting of the joint committees contributed to the issue of Iraq sought to get out of Chapter VII,” noting that “the seventh item remains under the umbrella of the United Nations is the decision-maker in this particular and our part, we seek to remove Iraq from Chapter this item. “
“We support the position of Iraq to get out of this item as soon as possible for the benefit of the two brotherly peoples.”  He insured his speech by saying, “We expect in this period Kuwaiti Prime Minister’s visit to Iraq to put its mark on all what has been agreed upon between the two sides and even develop more relations between the two brotherly peoples.”
It is noteworthy that Iraq is subject since 1990 to Chapter VII of the Charter of the United Nations, which imposed after the invasion of the former regime of Kuwait in August of the same year, and this item allows the use of force against Iraq as a threat to international security, as well as freezing of large amounts of its assets financial in international banks to pay compensation to those affected by the invasion.
The Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Sabah Khaled Al-Sabah said in a press conference on the occasion of the first flight of the aircraft of Iraqi Airways to Kuwait that “the interest of Kuwait is to be back Iraq a free man in all areas without being constrained by the decisions of the Security Council in any is, he said, adding that Kuwait has worked and will work to accomplish complete the implementation of the Iraq and celebrate with him on his release from Chapter VII.

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Iraq will supply 40% of world oil needs, conference

April 2, 2013 By

3/27/2013 3:33 PM

BAGHDAD/Aswat al-Iraq

A conference on Iraqi energy in UAE disclosed that Iraq will cover 40% of world oil needs during the coming two decades.

The conference, ended yesterday, Tuesday, and attended by Iraqi senior oil officials, pointed out the difficulties facing working companies in Iraq.

More than $36 billion oil, energy, water and petrochemical contracts were given since 2008, “thus the country will have better chances for development to be the fastest in the region”, it was confirmed.

It is expected that Iraq will invest about $200 billion in oil exploration and production during the coming six years, including $20 billion shall be allocated for refining and distribution purposes.

Iraqi budget depends on oil revenues by more than 90%.

This year Iraqi budget reached to 138 trillion Iraqi Dinars.

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Declining Confidence in Argentina’s Currency

April 2, 2013 By
March 22, 2013 | 1002 GMT

 

JUAN MABROMATA/AFP/Getty Images
Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner (L) and Vice President Amado Boudou in Buenos Aires on March 1

Summary

A sharp divergence between the official and black market rates of the Argentine peso this week worsened the country’s ongoing economic turmoil. This gap and the peso’s sharply declining value have undermined confidence in the currency.

The government now must figure out how to balance the competing needs of multiple sectors that all require some portion of the country’s limited foreign currency reserves. New taxes, in addition to a range of moves undertaken since President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner’s re-election in October 2011, are meant to maintain high levels of government spending and bridge the gap until the country can return to being a major exporter of more than just agricultural goods.

Analysis

The sharp fall in the value of the currency prompted Fernandez to call an emergency Cabinet meeting the evening of March 20. Confidence in the peso fell as a result of a March 18 tax bump on Internet transactions involving purchases of foreign products, from 15 percent to 20 percent. The parallel market, which hovered around 7.5 pesos to the dollar in January, reached 8.75 pesos to the dollar on March 20. The official exchange rate is around 5.1 pesos to the dollar, a 70 percent difference. Argentines’ limited faith in the value of the peso is not a new phenomenon, but the diverging official and unofficial rates are putting new pressure on Argentina’s currency regime.

The government is likely considering a devaluation of the currency. On a crawling peg, the Argentine peso has been slowly devaluing against the dollar since July 2008 — and since January 2010, the currency has gradually devalued by 24 percent. A sharper devaluation could enable the Argentine Central Bank to better control demands on the institution’s foreign exchange reserves.

But devaluation would also worsen the country’s already high inflation, which could rise above 30 percent in 2013. Efforts to control inflation have included widespread price controls that may now be extended until legislative elections in late 2013. Argentina’s inflation is driven foremost by monetary expansion that grows on average by about 34 percent annually. Increasing the money supply helps to fund policies that keep a range of consumables relatively cheap, including transportation, utilities and food. Devaluation, however, would raise the cost of imported goods and could worsen the overall inflation problem.

The ultimate goal of the government is to secure control over foreign exchange resources within the country while maintaining policies that cater to consumers. With only limited access to foreign capital markets, the trick for Argentina is to keep a tight grip on the country’s balance of payments. This is the reason for the host of capital and trade controls that have been enacted over the past two years.

But these policies have significant negative effects. Inflation drives up costs to Argentine producers and the slow crawl of the pegged currency means that the effective profit margin for exporters shrinks every year. This is especially important in the agriculture sector. Agricultural products constitute more than half of Argentina’s total exports — of which soybeans are half, by value — and agriculture export taxes account for 5 percent of government revenue.

As a result of narrowing profit margins, high government export taxes and strict controls on the quantity of wheat and corn that can be exported, the agriculture sector is gearing up for a political fight with the Argentine government. Having become highly organized during the 2008 confrontation with the government over soybean export taxes, the farmers are looking once again to effect change.

The threat of holding back soy exports has been aired, and protests that resemble those seen during the 2008 crisis could begin as early as April. If the government does not significantly change its policies, these protests will likely be even more organized and galvanized in 2014.

While Argentina’s agriculture sector benefits abundantly from the fertility of the Pampas region, it has not always been the most important source of income. At the beginning of the 21st century, Argentina was a significant exporter of hydrocarbons. But the price controls and regulatory environment of Fernandez and her now deceased husband and predecessor Nestor Kirchner led to a decline in exploration and production alongside a rise in consumption.

The country is now a net importer, and energy imports represent the single biggest threat to the country’s balance of payments. It was this danger that prompted the nationalization of energy company Repsol YPF in 2012, and the government is counting on a resulting increase in oil and natural gas production from YPF now that it is under new management. But the challenge is that in the process of nationalizing YPF, the Argentine government proved itself an unreliable business partner. Moreover, drawing real investment into the sector is proving difficult. Without a significant increase in energy production, Argentina’s options will dwindle. In all likelihood, the prospects of a political and economic crisis are growing.

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South Korean Won Leads Emerging-Market Currency Gains

April 1, 2013 By
By Erin McCarthy
The Korean won was a top gainer among emerging-market currencies Monday, propped up by South Korean exporters’ dollar-selling.  The won held onto to gains against the dollar throughout the day, even as various emerging currencies pared gains on renewed concerns about the euro zone’s debt crisis. The move was a notable shift from the won’s recent performance, as the currency has fallen about 2.6% against the dollar since the start of the month.
The won’s gains, however, were largely due to typical month-end flows by Korean exporters, analysts said. “It’s more exporter selling [dollars against] the Korean won,” said Jennifer Elvidge, emerging markets currency trader at Standard Chartered, adding that this type of won-buying tends to accelerate going into month-end.  The won advanced 0.6% against the dollar, which bought KRW1111.7 Monday, according to CQG.
However, many analysts don’t expect any won comeback against the dollar to last. One issue is that the won continues to track the fall in the Japanese yen. That’s because when the yen falls, Japan’s exports become more competitive compared to those of South Korea’s. In addition, there are growing concerns among market participants that South Korean officials could step in to weaken the won further to support South Korean industry.
“We still see [the won] trading as a loose…proxy for the yen in the near term,” Brown Brothers Harriman analysts said in a note to clients. They added that South Korea’s central bank and government “have the resolve, credibility and tools to manipulate the won should they want to–and it looks like they do.”
Elsewhere in the region, the Indian rupee also advanced to a one-week high against the dollar, after New Delhi simplified the rules for investments by foreign institutions in local debt over the weekend. Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram said Saturday that a complicated system of subcategories for investing in Indian government and corporate bonds will be removed. These had throttled foreign investment and capital inflows, which are crucial for financing the nation’s yawning current account gap.
That helped the rupee gain 0.2% against the dollar, which changed hands at INR54.23 Monday, according to CQG.
Other emerging currencies, however, failed to hold onto gains against the dollar after euro-zone jitters returned to the market. Foreign exchange traders had initially cheered Cyprus’s bailout agreement with its international creditors, helping higher-yielding currencies rise. Such optimism later faded, though, after Eurogroup head Jeroen Dijsselbloem said Cyprus’s bailout deal–which is expected to impose losses on certain bank deposits–could serve as a template to resolve any future problems with the region’s banks, in an interview with Reuters and the Financial Times.
The Mexican peso erased all gains against the dollar as a result, trading a touch weaker on the day at MXN12.3555 per dollar. Earlier in the session, the peso had jumped higher on Cyprus optimism and after data showed Mexico’s economic activity was up 3.2% on the year in January.
Similarly, the Turkish lira and South African rand pared all gains. The lira fell 0.5% against the dollar, after being in positive territory earlier in the session. The dollar bought TRY1.8235 Monday, from TRY1.8144 late Friday.
Against the South African rand, the dollar traded at ZAR9.3066, after trading as low as ZAR9.2104 earlier in the session, according to CQG.
-Khushita Vasant contributed to this article.
Write to Erin McCarthy at erin.mccarthy@dowjones.com

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Completion of border maintenance work will be “major milestone” in normalizing Iraq-Kuwait relations — Kobler

March 24, 2013 By

21/03/2013 | 9:13 pm | Kuwait News

UNITED NATIONS, March 21 (KUNA) — The UN special Envoy for Iraq Martin Kobler on Thursday said that the “major milestone” for normalizing relations between Iraq and Kuwait will be the “completion of boundary maintenance work,” which “must be done” before the end of this month.

“I have mentioned the progress achieved towards the normalization of relations between Iraq and Kuwait, including through Iraq’s positive steps towards fulfilling its remaining obligations under Chapter VII of the UN Charter. A major milestone in this process will be the completion of boundary maintenance work,” Kobler told the Security Council in an open meeting to discuss the work of the UN Assistance Mission in Iraq (UNAMI) which he heads.

He said the finalization of the removal of obstacles along the border, in particular the three houses in Umm Qasr, is a “necessary step”.

“Understandably, this step is sensitive and politically difficult for Iraq, ” he explained. “However, this must be done by 31 March”.

Iraqi Ambassador Hamid Al-Bayati expressed “hope” that the work will be done by that date.

“The joint technical team is working on the border pillars maintenance project, hoping that they could finish by the end of this month and close one of the most important issues between the two countries,” Al-Bayati told the Council.

“This would pave the way,” he argued, “to bilateral relations based on mutual respect and common interest and paving the way for the exit of Iraq from chapter seven”.

Kobler also urged Baghdad to accept the Kuwaiti funds set aside with the UN to compensate Iraqi farmer pursuant to Council resolution 899.

He expressed hope that this progress will lead to consensus on further “outstanding issues, including the file of missing Kuwaiti national and property”.

He said he sensed during his visit to Kuwait earlier this month “a spirit of optimism with the Kuwaiti leadership”.

“Therefore, it is with much anticipation that I welcome the upcoming visit of the Prime Minister, Sheikh Jaber Al-Sabah, to Baghdad in the near future,” Kobler said.

Al-Bayati said his government is “steadfast continuing the development of its relations with all countries of the region especially with the State of Kuwait”.

He urged the Council to assist Iraq in order to exit chapter seven that was imposed due to the “crime of Kuwait invasion by Saddam Hussein which made Iraq a threat to international peace and security”.

“Iraq today is not the Iraq before 2003… Iraq must regain the status it enjoyed before 1990,” the year Iraq invaded and annexed Kuwait, he said.

He complained, however, that Iraq is witnessing a political stalemate and an exchange of accusations among some of the political blocs, and that protests are continuing in a number of cities that are calling for a number of demands.

He indicated that the preliminary objectives of the demonstrations “deviated from the path of popular demands and they were infiltrated by terrorist groups aiming at stirring sectarian tensions and civil war”.

“The foreign and regional players that kidnapped the legitimate demands of citizens were exposed when the flags of the Free Syrian Army and portraits of foreign leaders were displayed during the demonstrations,” Al-Bayati said.

He noted that although Iraqi Security Forces are combating “terrorist activities, many of the rebel groups, including AI Qaeda are still active in parts of Iraq”.

He indicated that foreign companies have invested more than 55 Billion in investment projects and service contracts and other activities in all of Iraq, and that direct foreign investment reached about 2 Billion after being almost zero from a decade ago, pointing out that these amounts don’t include tens of Billions of Dollars of investments in the energy sector.

Nonetheless, he added, Iraq is working to attract investments to the country in order to contribute in reconstruction after years of suffering from neglect due to years of wars and sanctions.

Kobler also painted a bleak picture of the political situation in Iraq, warning that the political conditions are “weakening. In essence, the political fabric is fraying.” “The deep-seated lack of trust threatens the political fabric and the social bonds that should bring Iraqis together in one united, federal country on the basis of the constitution,” he said.

He agreed with Al-Bayati that “terrorists seek to ignite sectarian conflict and turn the clock back on Iraq’s nascent stability,” indicating that between November 2012 to February 2013, 1,300 innocent Iraqis were killed and 3,090 injured.

Kobler urged the parliament and the political blocs in Iraq to reach consensus on the oil-sharing revenue.

“The sharing of immense natural resources of Iraq in a fair and equitable way is a must and a prerequisite to rebuilding the trust. We will continue to build trust no matter how difficult it is,” he vowed. (end) sj.gb KUNA 212113 Mar 13NNNN

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Dinartrade Solutions From Deal or Buy Dinar

March 23, 2013 By

 

 

 

 

 

The dinar trade is booming. Unfortunately, the lack of exchange rate means that investors wishing to make a purchase may struggle to obtain currency. Get yours at Deal or Buy Dinar.

Our history in the dinar trade

As part of Lifesong Development Group LLC, Deal or Buy Dinar deals in the new Iraqi dinar, Vietnamese Dong and several other currencies out of international circulation.

Visit our website or call 888-235-0320 for more information.

The ins and outs of our dinar trade

We don’t just sell dinar; we buy them too. Provided your notes are in mint condition and pass our stringent quality testing, we’ll happily take them off your hands.

Contact us here or by phone or email for more information.

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Future Potential of the Iraqi Dinar

March 21, 2013 By

The value of the Iraqi Dinar declined to an all-time low as a result of the recent war. Prior to United Nations sanctions it traded at circa 3.35 per US dollar, while shortly before fighting broke out it traded at 0.33 per US dollar.

Today, the Iraqi Dinar has partially recovered, as has the economy. While now classified as an exotic currency, and therefore without an official exchange rate, reputable businesses such as Deal or Buy Dinar are offering excellent opportunities to collectors and investors alike.

Trading Iraqi Dinar

Trading Dinar is viewed as an excellent investment opportunity by many.Iraqis a country rich in oil and other natural resources, and so the untapped growth potential is there should the economy stabilize and grow.

‘Should’ being the operative word. Please note: Deal or Buy Dinar does not offer investment advice. We highly recommend you speak to an independent advisor before committing to buying or selling dinar.

Deal or Buy Dinar’s Iraqi Dinar credentials

We publish our competitive prices online. Often, we can deliver any currency you purchase within 24 hours.

Backed by parent company Lifesong Development Group, LLC, we’re registered with the US Department of Treasury and licensed with the state of Illinois. In compliance with federal and state regulations, we have security policies in place to keep your interests protected at all times.

For further information please contact Deal or Buy Dinar at 888-235-0320 or on our website.

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Allawi: Maliki monopolies authority, neglects partnership, violates constitution

March 20, 2013 By
Wednesday, 20 March 2013 11:06
Baghdad (AIN) -The head of the Iraqiya Slate, Ayad Allawi, accused the Premier, Nouri al-Maliki of monopolizing the authority and neglecting the partnership as well as violating the constitution.
In a press statement issued in Turkey that he is visiting currently “Maliki run the country alone without a guide as determined by Erbil Agreement,” noting that “The current situation is a result for ignoring the former agreements in addition to the continuous tension in the neighboring countries especially Syria.”

“The State of Law Coalition headed by Maliki violated the constitution by preventing the IS from practicing its democratic right after winning the elections in 2010,” he added.

“The exclusion process after the elections of 2010 led to dividing Iraq and forming sectarian blocs,” he mentioned.

He expressed his readiness to meet Maliki, calling him to respect the agreements concluded among Maliki, Allawi, and Barzani.

Over the partnership, he assured “The IS ministers do not have authorities,” confirming “All the authorities are granted to Maliki and his advisors.”

“We are not partners in the Government but we are participants as we participate to achieve political partnership in the country,” he remarked.

http://www.alliraqnews.com

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Collecting and maintaining dinars

March 19, 2013 By

The Iraqi dinar is currently one of the most sought after currencies in the world. Investors are buying in the hope that its value will rocket over the coming years, while others are purchasing the beautiful currency in order to expand on their collection.

If you’re interested in buying dinar, you need to know how to keep your notes safe and preserved.

Looking after your dinars

The dinars you buy, like any other currency, will be fairly fragile. If you want them to remain in top condition, handling the notes as little as possible is a good starting point.

Oil from your skin has a damaging effect on currency over time, so use gloves to handle notes whenever possible.

Store notes in a protected environment, such as a display folder. Exposure to direct sunlight should also be avoided.

Where to buy dinars

It’s a great time to buy dinars. Deal or Buy Dinar offers competitive exchange rates. Further, the company is registered with the US Department of Treasury and licensed with the state of Illinois under its parent company, Lifesong Development Group. For more information, visit our website or call 888-235-0320.

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